Timbers: Whither or wither?

I wasn't able to attend the Timbers' Open Cup match this past week.  Heard a fair amount of the end of it on the radio as I was driving home from work.  And the disheartening outcome, outplaying the opponent and then giving up a goal in stoppage time,  was distressing to hear.  Not for me 'cause I'm just a fan,   but certainly for the team and management.  Lots of voices from the stands and in the chatter boxes, electronic and print,  offered a range of opinions.  Spencer was to blame.  Boyd was to blame, Wilkinson was to blame.  Referees are to blame.  The defense is to blame.   


I've had a busy week so I haven't had time to follow all of it closely, but my inclination is to take none of this too seriously- yet.  I haven't lost my 'cheery optimism' that the core of this crew is solid.   A couple of posts back I ticked off thoughts on several players.   I don't feel differently so far.   


Boyd, for example,  and his drought.  Is it so unheard of?  I looked up some stats for strikers.   Zlatan Ibrahimovic might be a good example.  Player close to Boyd's age who's been around the game for a fair number of years. Twenty nine years old, he only knocked in 14 goals in 29 games last year at AC Milan.  This year he's showing 28 goals in 32 games.  Same team.    In 2005/6 at Juventus,  he only nailed 7 goals in 35 matches and then the next year went on to score 15 in 27 games when he moved to Inter.  I suspect in that grim year at Juvie,  people wondered if he'd lost it.
I'm sure Boyd has moments of doubt and anxiety; he'd be inhuman if he didn't.


What about the shooting?  A newspaper column this week mentioned the low percentage of shots on goal.   I  am reminded of one of my teammates,  Pat McCormick,  who says a lot of stuff I take with a grain of salt,  but he also says  "If you can't shoot you can't score."   I looked at the current MLS stats.   The Timbers are pulling the trigger an average of twelve times a game and 33% of those shots are on frame.  Is that low?   No.  United is leading the League with fourteen shots a game and  37% are SOG.   Right behind them,  San Jose is shooting 35 % on goal with fifteen a game.   I can't see that the numbers are big enough to explain anything. 


These statistics are interesting but not very helpful.   I personally think the Timbers should be shooting three or four more times a game.  In the last game against Vancouver,  I put my head in my hands when a lovely ball was slotted down from the back,  can't remember to whom.   When the ball reached the player's foot there was a clear lane for a hard low shot just outside the box on the Key Bank side--twenty yards.   The player didn't appear to look at goal as the ball was arriving,  but passed outside to the overlapping run.   The Timbers have used that successfully  but alternating with shots increases the dangerousness of the runs because the defense can't be sure which they'll be served with.


I do think the defense is challenged.   Early on there was talk about the Timbers giving up early goals being a problem.  And it may be,  but I note that San Jose have allowed an early first goal in the last five matches and come back to win.   For every easy factor to point to,  there are examples that suggest contrary interpretations. As I'm sure John Stewart knows all too well, there are no easy answers.  


I do have a couple of thoughts that I may have blathered about in some earlier post, but they keep coming back to me.
Stewart has often been quoted in the press as saying that he's going to put out the best eleven in his judgement  on any given day and that there are no givens.   Part of me likes the performance based decisionmaking.   Part of me also knows,  from managing employees over the years,   that folks don't do their best when their lives are uncertain.   Maybe Stewart's approach isn't as fluid as it sounds,  but many of these guys are young and I could imagine not everyone is gong to thrive in that system.


The other thought I have is about communication and understanding.   On the field, lack of  these two qualities can hamstring talent and desire.   On the pitch, players who know each other well and who get a rush from successfully connecting are more effective.  If you know a guy's strengths and weaknesses and play to that knowledge,  the whole side is better.   Don't put the ball on the left foot of a right-footed player.  I get the impression that Boyd and  some of his midfielders arent' quite there because he's not getting enough passes he can work with.   Again, in the Vancouver game, Chara slipped a lovely ball through the defensive line at the top of the box,  but clearly Boyd didn't know it was coming.
Communication and understanding.  


There are,  every game,  too many examples of our players passing to the feet of opponents.   There are more good passes but  the ones that go so directly astray are disheartening.  Is it lack of focus or misreading what the  other player is going to do?  I'm not sure.   I think that the rotation of players in the lineup does make it harder to find rhythm and understanding.   


Bottom line,  we're a long way from a worst case scenario.  Toronto has lost nine games in a row this year,  the longest losing streak since RSL went ten in a row in 2005.  Now that's gotta hurt.   I'm willing to think positive about our prospects.  We've got a ways to go before the season is truly ready for the ashcan.   

Kenny Cooper...we can't just let go.

On the MLS Extra Time Radio Podcast tonight,  there's a poll.  It asks readers to select among several American players their choic for which one should have gotten a call up to the National Team camp.  Top of the alpha based list is our former striker, Kenny Cooper.   Looking at the polling,  he's also near tied for most popular choice with Sacha Kljestan and Eric Lichaj.    Coop has definitely been having a happy run with the Red Bulls.  And more power to him. Though I never met him,  he seemed to be a genuinely nice guy.   


Back here in PDX though his success in the Big Apple raises a specter of unease.  Particularly when Kris Boyd, who was recruited to fill Coop's slot has struggled to notch goals.  


My sense is still that both forwards are capable and can be deadly.   The question that's not answered is whether their talents are being well-used.   If you've got a striker with a golden boot,  wouldn't you design the team to make sure he gets the service he needs to deliver?   Maybe that's too simplistic.  


Regardless, I think Cooper had a most challenging situation last season for whatever reasons.  And Boyd may be suffering from some of the same weaknesses.   I think I speak for most of the Timbers' fans.  We want the crew we've got to mesh and succeed.   For them and for us.

Portland Timbers-hard truths

Okay I gotta get down to the nut here. The Portland Timbers have excellent players and passionate coaching staff.  The Timbers are not winning.  Why?  I'd be laughable as a once or twice a week observer to try to answer that question.  However, I can claim some rights to comment as a longtime observer who's played the game as well as watched the game.  


Perlaza was recruited as a blistering fast forward who could beat defenses with his speed.  It isn't happening.  For whatever reason.   Boyd was recruited as a shark who could prowl the box and turn any pass he got into an opportunity.   It isn't happening.   Most of the balls to Boyd were long lobs to his head, the lowest percentage play we can use him for.  Shades of Kenny Cooper.  I like Chris Boyd as a shark.   We aren't playing to his strength.
In my community the buzz is to put Nagbe up with Boyd.  Nagbe's creative and fit and totally different in his mental focus.  I'd say play it as a wild card.   Chara is a demon crazed workhorse-encourage him.  We need to have Songo'o fit enough to start, if for no other reason than to find out if his pedigree is valid.  The guy's shown some poise and moves.  Let's check it out.   We have a stable of stellar midfielders.   Figuring out the inside is the hardest.  I think Capt. Jack can be a settling influence but needs a strong partner.  And clarity as to who is the holding mf.    Truth be told, we have more outside midfield candidates who can jet down the outside--so I'd like to see Chara, Jewsbury, and Songo'o as the inside trio.  


Defense is still at risk.  We've had serious knocks to our best guys-and that is going to continue to be an issue. Honestly, I think Brunner is generally solid except when he makes a move and misses.  Sweeping the ball and not getting it is a cardinal sin in front of goal.  Perhaps the return of Futty will help steady that.   On the outside, I think our new Scots' defender was solid.  I like Chabala.  I like Hanyar.  I like anyone except Wallace as outside back.
I admit to my biases.  


In the hole? I hope Perkins is back.  The  foul raking him in the face with cleats was grim.  And deserved a more stern penalty.  So it goes.


We've got a season still to win.  No one has to agree with me.  But 52,000 of us are watching and care about how the team goes.  Some are watching from the Jeld Wen Park and some are watching from Lostine Oregon.  But they all want to see their crew succeed.   

Questions of impact after Montreal.

A fair number of the guys who congregate on Saturday mornings for the 'old guys' practice' enthusiastically caravanned to Wild Wings on Lower Boones Ferry Road after play was over to watch the Timbers early match today against Montreal.  The mood was hopeful.   I don't want to make this an ad for Wild Wings but their modern building with yellow and black signage seemed made for a Mojos excursion.  And they had lots of beer.   Slightly cheaper than at Jeld Wen Field.   So it was that a crowd sat through the first half of the match on a giganto screen--no several screens.   The teams going off the pitch with a nil-nil tie on the board.


In the break,  many of us headed home.  Saturdays can't be all indolent football, beer, and chatter.  I logged back into the match just as Troy Perkins took a boot to the head and went off.  After which,  the ref awarded a PK as the ball bounced up onto new man, Steve Smith, and caught him under the arm.  In the replay he's clearly facing away from the ball and couldn't have seen it coming.   Regardless,   Montreal broke the stalemate with the PK and the game became more stressful.   The Timbers struggled to establish a rhythm.  Errant passes kept that from happening.  And in a horror show moment a crossing ball from Montreal's left flank sailed past Bendix,  the subbed in keeper,  and onto the toe of an unmarked blue shirt who squirted it home.   Best as I could tell,  Lovell Palmer was the Timber who was four steps behind the shooter.  


Much of what the Timbers did in this match was admirable, but they still seem like a turbocharged V8 that is only firing on five cylinders.   For most of the match,  the team didn't give away anything defensively but the PK unwound the elements of poise and the ultimate result was worse than needed.  Kris Boyd got few balls that he could do much with; his intensity was great as he came all the way back into our turf to try to strengthen the connections going forward.   Capt. Jack and Chara worked hard.  Nagbe looked better and better.   Steve Smith was solid, particularly for a walk on,  and became increasingly valuable putting in balls as the game progressed.
Hanyard and Brunner were largely solid in back.  Steve Purdy's substitution with clear reinjury was a setback but Braun filled the slot well.  I continue to be unsure what Perlaza is contributing.  He was called offside a half dozen times and in the rare moment when he was in a footrace to win the ball he didn't. 


Bad luck afflicted us today but we also allowed Fortune to kick us in the teeth at critical moments.  I think hard decisions still need to be made about who starts.  I think the players who are quoted in the press saying that 'the veterans need to provide leadership' need to tell the press they have nothing to say until things change and then need to hunker down and win games.   


I think they can.  Question is whether they will.